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Tuesday, July 2, 2019

2020 Democratic Primary Polling Analysis 2.0

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All right, everyone it's time to analyze some more polling within the Democratic primaries. I mean on the Republican side, because it's an incumbent election as opposed to the last one. We only have to do half as much poll analysis. It really doesn't matter what the Republican primaries say: cuz Trump is the nominee I mean he will be running unless he has like a massive heart attack or something like that and dies or or actually gets removed from office, which won't happen at this point. Calls for impeachment have really fallen off the edge of the earth too. So that's no real. It longer really a problem. We'Ve got to look at three polls here. We'Ve got a pair of polls from respectively I'll do I do have this tab, open Emerson and The Economist from before the debates we have one poll so far after the debates. That is its period as the twenty-seventh and twenty-eighth right afterwards. This is from Politico. Now Politico does not have a great track record for accuracy. I don't know whether these numbers are accurate. It shows a little bit of a shift, but not not a monumental earth-shattering amount, and some of the results, I would assume, would be a little bit odd, like like. Like a shift downwards for war and for example, I would consider odd after the first row of debates or or maybe a you know, significant rise for some candidate. But let me go through this and look at these. First and foremost. Biden is still on top again for the first time we finally had one polling period that the new polling period, where one of Biden's low numbers, is smaller than someone else's biggest number, which is Sanders being supposedly at 27. In the Emerson poll, the problem with the Emerson poll is, it is a complete. Statistical. Outlier has in ten points ahead of any of the other polls. Recently, 27 verses 19 and the Politico poll is the second-largest some of them, the others all have them. In the mid teens, 13, 14 and 15 respectively from the Hillmon mouth and the economists 27 is probably an outlier. I don't know if you can trust this poll anyway. It also shows Biden to 34, which is you know, kind of in line with the hill poll. But there are some wonky numbers there and I'm not sure. I think it's under estimating the fact that there's a small amount of support for the smaller candidates and I'm not sure what they ask people about all the candidates - maybe they compacted it more so maybe Sanders is just a strong second choice: candidate, like people who support Some of the left-wing individuals on the bottom they're like well it'll, be I support. You know Gabbard, but if she's knocked out I would support Bernie Sanders or something like that. It'S possible that was their methodology. If we look, though, just at the newest post-debate poll again keeping in mind, aggregated numbers are accurate, or at least more accurate, that they're kind of accurate single polls are rarely fully accurate. Some of these numbers are almost invariably going to be wrong. This puts Biden on 33, which is that's roughly in line with the aggregate. It shows him about stable, which that's I can imagine will be the case. I think his debate performance was good enough to keep him where he is, but not good enough to sort of seal. The deal which is natural Biden, is not naturally a good, debater or speaker he's more of the stable sane center-left. You know acceptable Democrat for the business Dems and some of the so-called centrists within the Democratic Party. Now the Democratic Party is highly schismatic, so you've got like a third of the parties really far left. Think Sanders is too far right. Another third of business Dems they're getting tired of that and then you've got the neoliberal stuck in the middle. With all the corporate money and they're trying to hold things together. Biden loses his biggest fundraising apparatus. The Sanders campaign is hemorrhaging money right now they sent out a circular, an email to people. Apparently yesterday they're, like oh, the average donation in the last campaign was at $ 27. This time around, it's only 13 or something like that. It'S like! Basically, they don't have enough money, like the grassroots style of campaign, does have its limits. The problem for Sanders, I'm going to tell you this. The one thing that could really Sanders up is the fact that he's perceived of by a lot of his former core fans. As a sellout because of the 2016 election, they wanted him to stand on principle and not endorse Hillary Clinton. They wanted him to stand aside and say: I'm not going to make an endorsement because the revolution continues and she doesn't represent the kind of ideological values. I have the problem: is he intended to run again and if he had done that it would have been political suicide? The Democrats would have come around him like a Mountain. Rolling down a hill in would have crushed him completely. He he and his fans cannot stand against. That kind of thing would have been a free-for-all. Then we have Sanders on 19. This again is roughly in line with the aggregate. It shows Warren at 12. Now this is also it's funny, because the economist Paul had her at 19 that it showed a rise like in line with the rise. The political poll shows her stabilizing at 12, which is sort of the aggregated number 12 point 6 Harris at 12, which shows her having a significant rise of about 5 points that I can imagine, I'm not sure that I would believe that it would be that much Though, and anyway of be temporary, the fact is that, unless, unless the rise puts you up towards the top one or two slots, it tends to be temporary. We saw this again in 2016 with all of these different Republican candidates. They rise up somewhere and they in the high teens the low twenties. Then they go back down or they rise up significantly above because they have a good debate performance. They make a good speech. They have a good interview on TV, they gain. Several points goes back down within a couple of weeks. I would expect, generally speaking, the numbers that you see will remain stable unless something significant happens, that's just the tendency. If they do deviate, it's usually temporary and they regress back to that mean if that is in fact the case, the only thing that can stop Biden is, he loses in Iowa and Sanders comes out of. Nowhere wins that in New Hampshire and looks a more electable and suddenly gained steam or like Warren, grabs, Nevada and sweeps Super Tuesday, or something like that, but Agia shows at exactly his. His numbers have been so remarkably stable for so long. It literally 666 there with Emerson economists and political, that's probably because we've got a good aggregate there, because all the numbers pretty much agree with each other, even though all the other numbers can be wonky. I would say his support is know between 5 and 7 percent somewhere within that general region. Sort of rounding out the top 5 betos nowhere to be seen in the latest round of polling he's respectively got a 1 a 3 and a 2 cory. Booker is about the same Booker's gon na overtake beto at some point and he sort of will round out the viable candidates, the top six in such a packed field. Technically, although I would say the top four, they like butter, gigs still has a little bit of work to do it. If Harris really has picked up that steam, it makes it harder, for, I think, P, but a geek to actually break through into the top four and and sort of become viable. You'Ve got to realize after a few more debates and they'll go on to the voting. Next year it's possible some people drop out before then. If their campaign war chest is completely empty. Like let's say Hickenlooper is completely broke. You can't self fund. Some of these people are not capable of self funding. Their campaigns rely on a traditional fundraising apparatus. If that's the case and they fall flat and they can no longer fundraise, they have to drop out. They don't want debt Bayona, that the idea is you drop out, and then you, you know basically embezzle that money politicians manage to do that through various means. All the time yang got no boost Klobuchar, as predicted when she first got in, has disappeared off the face of the earth. Gabbard didn't get a boost according to the political poll now again and and some people called uh tried to call me out they're like why didn't you put Gabbard in your top five candidates? Gabbard would be a close number six, but I had to make a decision here and the thing is Gabbard did well, she became more visible, but did she do well enough become visible enough to extend herself into electability in the minds of voters? I said no, it looks like I'm probably right. I think I am she is. She would be a strong candidate if you fielded her against Trump she'd, actually have a chance, she'd be like if you put buddy gig in front of Trump these. These two, particularly Julian Castro, pissed away his chance, so did Gillibrand they're they're out to Julian Castro, with his pandering Gillibrand, with her attempts to be a firebrand that completely fell flat, because you know Harris happened to be on the stage it didn't exactly worked after you Tiger mom candidates up there, one of which is very very white and erudite and the other one of which was trying to expose herself for the first time to a wider audience. Really that wasn't part of her core fan base. The latter she succeeded, Harris did Gillibrand, did not it's funny, then you have, like you know, yang. It'S like he's dead in the water he's tried he and Williamson. It was funny tried to excuse themselves, we're saying MSNBC it tampered with their microphones and stuff like that, and it's like okay, so you've got the two, the two weirdo candidates, literally I one of them, is preaching basically a form of communism which is ubi. I used to be in favor of ubi many years ago until I really thought about the economic impact and I realized oh, this will take the lower middle class and bunch it up with the most poor and even them out and make them more poor. It will take purchasing power from the middle class as well, by raising the cost of goods and services and inflating the currency. The rich aren't gon na care. You know they know $ 1,000 a month or whatever you want to give them doesn't matter to someone who's got billions of dollars. They don't notice the impact. The little people will the bottom 50 % of society get, and so no, I oppose ubi. It'S an attempt to even out the lower rungs of society, it's a form of soft communism for the masses, that's literally what it boils down to so he's got economic voodoo, he's a weirdo and then Williamson was up there. I expected her to take out love, beads and start meditating up on stage. She was arguably the craziest, but she wasn't even the biggest loser who's better O'Rourke of the two debates. The biggest loser was Beto because he was the only one. Who'D had a really truly poor performance that was technically a viable candidate. The rest of these people have viable Gillibrand is not viable shetan, as she never was. She never generated any traction. Klobuchar has never been viable Williamson. I didn't even know she was in the race. Her her name exposure now that's gone out is that you know when she fund raises she's gon na blow it all on LSD. I think there's probably better for the country than the rest of the Democrats. Platforms. Williamson 2020 give me drugs, Williamson, 2020 I'll, go in and preach it and eat more kale meeting Williamson 2020. The weird that I say is less harmful than anyone else on this stage. That'S what should be her campaign slogan. She should just make a mockery. Satire campaign about her own party at this point. She really should because the Democratic Party's falling apart when I look at the people up on stage getting away from polling analysis here from just a second. When I look at this stage, I don't see anyone who stands out the only people that strike me as even electable or people are Biden and but a geek, a Biden because he's already been in the White House he's been a VP he's the dynastic old politician. So he he looks to the role because he's been one step from the role not saying I'd, agree with him politically, I don't not saying I'd vote for him, because you know we don't need another pervert in the White House. We had enough of that with Bill. Clinton, so no I wouldn't vote for by, but he looks the part, especially for the business Dems. I mean that would be an advantage. He has in a fight with Trump is that he can coax some of the business Democrats back or he could potentially compete in a place like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. How did these losers can and then buddy gig, because he's young well-spoken? He gets his point across in a very erudite manner. The problem for buddy gig is the far left of the party hates him as much as it does Biden he's lower down he's, not the front-runner Kenney, whether that sort of attack it looks like despite his good performance, he got no boost. That'S because a lot of the the people that could support him, they're locked in with Biden if Biden were to collapse right now. I think the buddy gig would be the big winner. I think buddy gig and Sanders would absorb most of his support. Sanders had become the front-runner, but again could be hashing it out with Elizabeth Warren for second place. I think that's what would probably happen Harris might keep rising. I think Harris is a fluke I think Harris will be sort of like the the Ben Carson of the election cycle or something that, if she's gon na rise up here, because she had a good debate - performance, she's, gon na falter back down. This will probably happen at the other debates. I mean it's obvious. He is spoken fairly well as at least for a far left crowd. You got to realize the people who are actually looking at these numbers and saying whether they do or do not approve of these people in most of these polls. These are registered Democrats. That'S who they're trying to pull registered Democrats likely voters that lean left ideologically groups like that? Yes, they're gon na like what Harris said. Oh, she called him Trump, a racist and a sexist. She says she wants. You know health care for all, which is say more taxes, education for all, more taxes, student loan, debt, forgiveness, new green deal, banning guns. So basically it's a laundry list of far left for the things. Well, these people are just trying to out far left each other to be the anti Biden, because my denies everything else sewn up unless he makes a major mistake. The biggest problem for him is he probably well at the next debate or even before he could say something totally stupid and off-the-wall, even though, if you've noticed he's Obama's best friend, I was his VP Obama. Obama Obama. It'S always the talks about when he's on the debate stage. Practically I was Obama's, VP and friend, and Trump is bad, and yet he can't even score Obama's endorsement. If Obama were to endorse Joe Biden, he wins tomorrow he would become the roof of the Democratic nominee. Obama hasn't done. That now has he. He says. Oh, I, like Joe he's a good person poor Joe Biden. Oh my god, yeah didn't be funny. He gets Hillary Clinton's endorsement. He loses five points of support. He probably told her. Please don't endorse me yeah. I know I know I'm crooked and crazy too, and you probably want to but didn't you know hold off, but she was talking to bet. It was funny than better O'Rourke before the debate Erie launches his campaign calls the Clinton campaign probably kiss his ring. He still can't do anything. Beto is done. He needs to drop out. Come on. You lose against Ted Cruz in an election where, where the Democrats throw more money at your particular position, to try to steal Cruz's see than any other election, tens of millions of dollars, you've got high-level a grade. Politicians coming down there daily to stump for you, they've they're, pumping your campaign with every possible legacy, media tabloid steroid. They can and you still lose yeah. That'S not a good sign. He goes into the presidential election. Well, I'm better! Oh my god! Jai rating around, like a evangelical minister, and he still is a loser - he's never going to be in politics again, probably he's pissing away any chance to the eyes of state-level politics. Go back to being widows of the mayor of San Antonio. If they'll have you go back to that, are try for the legislature again when Cruz leaves, which could be a while since he's one of those he's one of the younger senators, it's fine Ted Cruz, one of the youngest people, the Senate, and it shows one of The problems with our legislative body, but yeah so yeah, there's a little bit of poll analysis of just talking. The democratic primaries have become. It is a circus. It'S fun to watch, I'm having a great time. This election is way better than 2016. This is way more unhinged than the Republican debates in 2016. This is way more weird and the Democratic field is so boring time around. Now it's exciting it's exciting, because I can't wait for the next debate. I want to see what weird these people say. I want to see Williamson say that everyone should have to take mescaline. I want to see Cory. Booker talk about more reparations to people who never experienced slavery. I want Sanders to try to read, face idli, explain how he's going to up the taxes on the richest people to 60 % and not raise anyone else's taxes. I want to hear these people explain their positions because their positions are stupid. These people are morons by and large, that's about all PL

Trump Makes History, Steps Into North Korea, Gets Attacked by Leftists

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All right, everyone, it's fun to see the same people who applaud like socialism and leftism and communism in general, jumping down Trump's throat for daring to step across the DMZ into North Korea and like shake hands with Kim Jong gun. It was funny because there's a very funny image us on 4chan last night was like yes showed. Obama he's behind, like you know, four or five inches of bulletproof glass with binoculars looking across the DMZ from a mile, a fucking way from a fucking pillbox on the South Korean side, and you know talking about how he's weak and shit like that and then Trump's. Like he fuck it, basically just walks across with no guards optics win for Trump, a big optics win. It shows that negotiations are ongoing. This kind of stylized, very theatrical behavior, is very deliberate and somebody pointed out - and I had forgotten about this - I had joked quite some time ago about Trump - you know maybe crossing into North Korea or something - and I it was tongue-in-cheek at the time who I didn't Figure that would actually physically happen. It would be really legendary if the next summits in North Korea, if it's in Pyongyang Trump, is an absolutely no goddamn danger if he goes to North Korea - and he knows it - here's the thing Obama took in various strategic things like wow. I know North Korea is a hostile state. I'Ve been warned, it could be a problem, but if they poison you're saying if Trump were to go into North Korea - let's - let's just argue devil's advocate here - he goes into North Korea gets poisoned and they almost die. So they shoot him in the head. What happens? Pyongyang gets nuked off the face of the earth and retribution and most of North Korea's killed instantly. He knows that he doesn't give a fuck is he even pence was like looking across the binoculars. It is funny cuz. Every president, other than Herbert Walker - and this would be in recent history - has visited the DMZ Herbert Walker. That was vice president though, and visited it at one point so that sort of still counts. So every other presidents visited it, but he's the only president who's actually gone into North Korea. No other president has because, of course, before the 50s there was no North Korea. It was just Korea, and so presidents back then couldn't have Trump is the only one with the balls to have done so this sort of rap war being built between North and South Korea, especially, but also between Trump and Kim jong-un, uniquely as individuals as figureheads charismatic Leaders with certain things in common in their governance, style, sort of that theatrical, bent two things: Trump, having been basically of a master actor most of his life, it goes well, it could bring about peace. This is the closest that we've had to peace in the Korean Peninsula since North and South Korea split in the first place. I think that that's a good thing and to watch people who are supposedly liberal, deriding him and saying he shouldn't be meeting with dictators. He shouldn't be meeting with mean people. How else do you expect peace to actually occur? And meanwhile people were you know hilariously posting pictures of FDR when he was sitting next to Joseph Stalin back in the 40s? I'M not sure that's the best example, because Stalin was, you know, really truly a despicable human being Kim jong-un is just following in the footsteps of his parents and of his parent anyway, and some people have pointed out well, and this is again get them to jump Down your throat to like: well, we do shitty things too. You know we have people executed, we drone people overseas, you bomb things all the time and invade, and it's like people say no. No, it's totally different. No, it's not not really. This is no. We'Ve got way way more people in prison than North Korea ever has. Don'T you think, that's a fucking problem. I remember when liberals were like. Oh, we need prison reform Trump passes prisoner farm. Oh it's not enough. They'Re, like oh, we want peace, Trump tries to get peace in Korea - oh my god orange man, bad. What the fuck are you people smoking? You must be hanging out with Williamson again I support any overture that could possibly benefit the fight for peace in the Korean Peninsula. Any overture is appropriate in the situation, because you've also got a deal understand something else. Until the last few years we were not dealing with a fully nuclear North Korea. We were dealing with a North Korea that had tested a couple of know relatively primitive, like our our efforts in the forties style atomic weapons and not with a 100 % success rate. Now they've tested what they consider an h-bomb either that arose a number of atomic weapons hooked together or a very large atomic weapon, something like we developed in the late 40s early 50s. It'S not exactly the most efficient design or device. It'S not exactly. I mean it's not, you know the Tsar bomb or something like that, but it's considerably better, based on the magnitude of earthquake generated by their most recent test. It was either of a primitive h-bomb design, or it was something else, a very large atomic weapon, regardless of shows they either have more nuclear material or a more sophisticated design. The other risk is always this: what happens if they do something wrong and one of these weapons they're developing, goes critical in a factory somewhere. You know, there's not assembling in the tunnel and probably shipping it there. What happens if they accidentally, you know Nanook themselves, what the fuck do, you think is gon na happen. What happens if China detects that, as you know, some sort of sabotage and starts fighting or that invades North Korea? Oh, my god, we can't do anything to stop it anymore. You know quick rush. The border get a million men and their double-quick. What happens? It'D be fuckin anarchy, it'd be a free-for-all and bring them it'd, probably bring about a nuclear standoff. The u.s. is in the region, you've got Russia right on their border. South Korea and Japan would be like scrambling to get involved. It'D be the rush for North Korea. Can we possibly think of a situation which it's good idea to avoid that I find it funny that people are like? Oh, you know we're liberals. You know Trump orange man bad. If he talks, you know in any sense about it wrong. Oh, my god, we can't do anything there, but if he wants peace in North Korea, that's also bad, so so he's wrong if he makes peace overtures he's wrong. If he's strong arms a country he's wrong, if he sanctions and he's wrong, if he removes sections, I think I see the definition of Trump derangement syndrome here and that's really what it's about they're, not willing to give him any credit. I think that if there's even the remote possibility of a lasting peace in Korea, absolutely we should push for it. Thank goodness Trump's number-one willing to do that. Number two he's pretty adept at it. Look at the progress that's been made that the real success of Trump. So far hasn't been in u.s. North Korean relations. That'S just a floor show, but by showing that mutual respect by showing hey, I can step into your country. I know you're not gon na stab me in the back or something that allows the rope public of Korea and North Korea to negotiate further. It allows the two Koreas to solve their differences they're. The main actors in this, the u.s. is simply the guarantor and backer of South Korea. Just like China is involved, they're simply the backer and guarantor well enough, backer much anymore of North Korea. We'Re interested parties that happen to guarantee the stability of the region with our militaries but they're the two Koreas, they're the only people that lay claim to the peninsula they're the Koreans there in Korea. It'S not a piece of the u.s. South Korea is not a US State. North Korea is not a province of China. It'S not beholden to Beijing, it's its own autonomous, well, semi, autonomous Kingdom of sorts communist ajusshi Kingdom. You know a lot of people. I think on the left are just sad, because if North Korea disappears it's another communist nation, at least a name that stopped existing, mainly because people there got tired of the constant war footing, it goes motorcycle name, /, again, always a fun time. When I'm recording videos. I don't mind it as much. I think he finally got a muffler, but I mean seriously he's the first u.s. president to do this. This takes some balls because it could have been a big optics loss. Think about this. Let'S say that Kim Jong gun doesn't like Trump doesn't want peace fuck Trump. Basically, he wanted to one-up him. Let him walk across into North Korea and then push him back out or say: have the guards like escort him back across or stop him when he tries to cross the line or something like that could have been a major diplomatic disaster. Trump didn't give a fuck. He walked right across. I think that that I think that that's a good thing and of course you know there was never any real risk involved and no other presidents been fucking doing it. Trump shouldn't deal with dictators. Okay, so we should just leave the dictators alone to be dictatorial and we should never try to achieve peace, because we happen not to agree with these people. This is the same fundamentally screwed up mentality that keeps violence going in our own streets, o bash, the fash throw milkshakes and rocks at shit at people like it doesn't matter if it's actually, if we've actually identified a totalitarian yeah that dude the maca cap. While he's got a manga cap on, he must be a fascist dude who can throw a milkshake at him? Oh, it's just a milkshake. What are you snowflakes worried about? No we're not! We can't coexist with or talk to or tolerate, the existence of certain groups of people. We have to punch people in order to prevent a violent uprising, or I don't know whatever illogical thing. The commies are saying these days, don't call yourself a liberal. If you don't want to see peace in the Korean Peninsula, you can say you can come out and say I don't believe Trump can achieve it. Yeah, of course I mean in any given time just because Trump shakes Kim's hand and goes across the DMZ, doesn't magically mean an era of warm relations or something like that, but it gets the ball rolling. It'S a start. Negotiations can continue. It'S a lot warmer than the Hanoi conference that fell apart after what 12 fucking hours because of because again of the bowl tonight's insisting on denuclearization now Trump has stated that again, but he's also said it's not on a timetable. Here'S what I think - and this is what I think he's moving towards and if he does he's a fucking genius and he will be remembered fondly for this - bringing about peace in Korea potentially or laying the groundwork thereof. It seems that he's more focused on trying to get the two Koreas to sign a true peace treaty. If that happens, in the absence of US or Chinese involvement with or without us signing anything that will allow denuclearization to begin, because there will no longer be any justification for Western intervention in North Korea and there will no longer be any intervention, a justification for them To bother with a nuclear program because they spent half a century. Well, you know at least talking about wanting news saying it was a deterrent August to prevent us from being invaded by the evil imperious. Well, if the evil imperialists can invade you, because there's no longer a need for a nuclear deterrent, because there's no war, there's no hostility. Yeah, who cares they'll, probably sell their nuclear weapons? Hell, let's buy them up and put them in our nuclear plants or do whatever it is they do with them. They'Ll probably give them to France. Everyone wants the French to dispose of their nuclear weapons. Why is it that France gets to do that? Why don't we get that cool job? Can i buy one? Can I have an atomic bomb? I can think of some good things to do with that, but put it inside a big-ass rocket and I'll just blast myself off into the moon and they all die, but it'll be pretty funny. Then my remains can be. Aren'T there a few uh? Wasn'T there one lunar orbit with humans on it and they crashed and burned and their remains might be on the moon? Are there? Any ones remains like I know there are. Some people have died in outer space and stuff like that, but I mean, like you know, on another planet or asteroid or something I don't, I'm not sure off to study my space history loom. What is a fascinating thing, especially in the early days of testing, when there were some rocket mishaps? That'S about all peace out!

An Armistice in the US-China Trade War

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All right, everyone, Trump and G - I guess - had a good enough meeting at the G, whatever it is now summit and and they've agreed to have an armistice on the us-china trade war, because the new tariffs that would have taken effect - I mean at some point it Would negatively impact the US economy like right now? It'S slowed growth slightly, but we're still churning ahead. China really has gotten the fuzzy end of the lollipop for sure on the issue, but that doesn't mean that Trump wants to go further unless he has to because it's a shitty idea. It'S a crazy idea getting into an all-out trade war with China, like beyond the tariffs that we are already slapping each other with during negotiations, would be horrible for the entire world's economy. If you're, not careful, you can trigger a Great Depression and even though we would come out as victorious what's there to be victorious over a downturned economy, Trump gets kicked out. The Democrats come in they're, terrible at solving economic issues. You saw Obama prolonged the Great Recession. Fdr prolonged the Great Depression, it always seems like we end, we end up getting big spenders and high tax errs in in the wake of an economic problem. That'S invariably caused by regulation but blamed on the free market that doesn't even exist in the components that are spoken of a socialist or or in Obama's case. Just a generic leftist comes in and prolongs the problem, while haranguing about how things are now different and then somebody comes in and restores American hope and confidence, and then we have a brief period of reprieve before we go through the next boom-and-bust cycle caused by big Government, what we need to do is get government out of as much as possible. We need to constrain it far far more more. We need more constitutional protection. We need to extend it as much as possible. We need to lower taxes as much as possible, repeal as many regulations as possible and get as many good government bureaucrats out of the job as possible. The problem is like I know like like when I make a youtube video considering the number of people to watch me. Some of you are government workers. How this probably politician is watching that I hate to say it, but I want most of you to be unemployed temporarily and have to join the private marketplace. If your jobs important it'll spring up in the private marketplace and to tell the truth most government workers, they make a decent amount of money, and you should have some savings like I'm, not trying to be like I'll fuck. You I'm not trying to be an asshole about it. It'S just that the economy at large would grow more robust you'd get a better job, probably down the road anyway, especially since most government jobs they require specific training, you're, not a dumbass, so don't worry about it too much little inconvenience now for a long-term gain. You can see. Regulation is more like short-term gain, long-term pain, you're like oh. We regulated this thing, and now workers have more protections. Oh, oh, the economy down turned all fuck-ups. Now it was the private market. Place'S fault: it's good to see that the G can be reasonable, because Trump had already extended sort of the olive branch and said you know, let's restart negotiations and it was stalled. There were no negotiations ongoing as frozen now, all of a sudden they're on going again, I guess basically Trump just had to say: okay, the next layer of tariffs, we're not going to apply we're gon na repeal the last layer of tariffs and China repealed theirs temporarily. I think that's good, because you know collectively the US and China are the largest economies in the world combined dwarf. You know, however, many countries that come after a significant proportion of all the world's economic capabilities. We have two of the most powerful militaries we have. Some of the greatest force projection the u.s. specifically naval II, China's increasing their capabilities, at least within the region branching out throughout the Indian Ocean, especially it would be a bad idea if we were openly hostile towards one another and fucking both Trump, and she understand this. It'S not like they're clueless about it and Trump, I think, is uniquely qualified to wage this kind of negotiation. Can you imagine Obama trying to negotiate an entire 100 percent trade overhaul with the Chinese? Can you imagine if Obama had tried that the bush, if he the Bush, had tried it? It would have been funny because he would have been bumbling and he would have done that thing. Like the first visit to China there, where he tried, I think, to push the door and he had to pull it or something, and he looked dumbfounded and the Chinese thought that was hilarious. I mean he just came off as as disarming, even though he's really cold calculated full blooded psychopathic mass murderer, but you know he played the part of a dumbass. Well, Bush did Clinton yeah. Maybe he could have negotiated things in China, but I mean back. Then there was more hostility back then the US government actually bothered to criticize the nation of China. The last few administration's did that relatively less. You heard relatively little outcry about human rights about you know: child slavery, the sex trade in China, currency manipulation, hacking and cyber terrorism, which is what it is that China conducts the the the what is it the great cannon of China? The idea that China can instantly weaponize its whole Internet to knock out companies in the US if it wants, like literally just send a massive surge of data that just fucking fries their servers. China does all of these things and nobody wanted to talk about it. Like Hillary Clinton is pressed on it, she doesn't want about when, when the Democrats are asked, what's the greatest threat, only a couple of them said China. Well, a couple of them said Iran and, I think the rest all said in Russia or I think one person sarcastically remarking. It was Trump, but I mean that's the mentality of the left. Today they don't understand, it can't see the forest for the trees. In many cases, they I mean they're, looking at all of these boogie men all around them, that they've concocted in their minds China sitting there openly, manipulating its currency and waging a trade war against us. That was sparked in part by the fact that they've been abusing us incrementally on trade for now decades and decades Trump tries to solve the problem. They'Re all rooting against him. We'Ve got a Democratic Party that by and large, is rooting for China to win a tariff war against the United States because they don't want to give Trump credit for doing what Trump is best at negotiating he's the negotiator in chief he's a money president he's not A war president in virtually all aspects of foreign policy when Trump needs to use force, he hasn't dropped bombs. He doesn't say I'm gon na send troops in or press the little red button. He says I'm gon na tear a few. I'M gon na. Take your money. I'M going to abuse you the same way: you're abusing us and the u.s. is in a unique position, virtually all the countries that we do business with it's lopsided in trade. That is, we've never tariff them. We don't embargo them. We don't intervene in things, but they do they manipulate currency or they enact a tariff or protectionism in some way they block some u.s. good. So we can just say I will do exactly what you've been do to us. Oh my god! Now you can't do that here here. Well, we'll give you some relief now it doesn't solve the problem completely, but if you solve 20 or 30 percent of the problem across the board with just the major trading partners were with Canada and Mexico, that's on the table. Congress has to ratify the u.s. MCA. They need to fucking. Do that and stop dragging their heels. Hehe got German automotive. That'S so that's a big thing and now he's going for the jugular for China. If he does that, he will have solved a significant amount of our of our trade imbalance, of our lack of productivity in heavy industry and a million other things he'll have finally solved. These problems he's trying to also go for the holy grail of immigration and negotiations between Israel, Palestine and the two Koreas he's. Obviously a big thinker he's got two successes under his belt. He'S got one more under way and then he's got a couple that are on hold at the moment. Did the Chinese trade deal until literally yesterday, and then you know Israel, Palestine? I wouldn't expect he can solve that. The world's foremost issue. The fact that these two minuscule nations in the Middle East that happened to control a lot of regional trade and travel, don't like each other, the people they're constantly fire rockets and bombs and shit at each other. Rather sad I mean it's like you know, firing off missiles out in the desert, not the most productive thing. You could be doing with your life, but I don't know I guess it's become a pastime of sorts. It'S like here. The pastime is shit posting on the internet in in some countries the pastime is drinking or soccer hooliganism or something there it's making rockets. I guess firing them off so here on the 4th of July when the Rockets, so it must be weird to be in a country where, when you hear explosions and stuff it's not fireworks or someone shooting, you know what a gopher or something in their garden. I hear gunshots and then fireworks and shit all the time here and I just ignore it, because it's like it's natural, can you imagine, though, you're like Israel or or on the crew, the Korean border. You start hearing explosions, you probably Duck and Cover that's about all peace. Oh

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